|
Above, a fire
simulation on a 200-meter hill.
NCAR reserachers couple numerical regional weather simulations
with fire models to advance our understanding of wildfires, often running
these simulations on NCAR supercomputers supported by SCD. Researchers
also use the expertise of SCD staff to visualize the results of these
model runs in wildfire
visualizations.
|
Frontline fire
fighting could soon go high tech. In the not so distant future, analysts
using supercomputers may be able to send real-time maps and predictions
of a wildfire's next moves to wildfire incident management teams hundreds
of miles away. That crucial information could be passed on to palm pilots
and other wireless devices in the hands of frontline firefighters deciding
how best to battle the blaze.
With millions of dollars in property lost and millions of acres in
the American West burned by devastating wildfires in recent years,
researchers at the University of Colorado at Denver, the University
of Kentucky, Texas A&M University, Rochester Institute of Technology,
and NCAR are working together to develop state-of-the-art information
technology tools and apply them to wildland fire.
This team has been awarded $2 million to develop an advanced,
computer-generated, dynamic, data-driven system that will predict wildfire
behavior and progression. The four-year project, funded by the
National Science Foundation, will use the most recent advances in computer
speed and power, high-speed information networks, satellite and sensor
monitoring, mathematical theory, and meteorology to develop tools to
warn firefighters about where a fire may go and sudden changes that
might occur, such as wind changes or extreme fire behavior.
Called the Data Dynamic Simulation for Disaster Management, the effort
is part of NSF's Information Technology Research Program. The team
is headed by CU-Denver mathematics professor Jan Mandel, who will work
with a coupled weather and wildfire computer model developed at NCAR
to build a software system that will use data from the fire scene to
determine wildfire-spread scenarios and probabilities.
The grant will allow the team to create a system where multiple sensors
placed around a wildfire will continuously send input such as temperature,
wind direction and speed, and the moisture in grass and sticks to a
supercomputer.
The supercomputer will use the mathematically based wildfire model
to continuously send maps and forecasted fire locations to the front
lines in real time, allowing a fire manager to see minute-by-minute
predictions or anticipate where fire growth will occur along the fire
line. The system may also allow fire managers to plan the most effective
and efficient actions, for example by foreseeing situations where weather,
the terrain, fuels, and winds created by the fire would combine to
create a fire that would grow rapidly unless more resources are used
to stop it early on. The system might also be used to identify situations
where wildfires can be allowed to spread harmlessly under controlled
conditions for hazardous fuel reduction and natural resource benefits.
The efforts of the team will eventually be put to the test. In four
years, they are scheduled to take the technology to a real wildfire.
"In the past, running a model on a computer meant starting
a simulation and then waiting for the results. It is time to change
the way scientific modeling is done. In a movie, you may see a computer
on a starship, and the computer takes into consideration new information
as soon as it comes," Mandel said. "This is how computers
work in the imagination of movie directors, and this is how people
expect computers should work. Our project will help make this a reality."
Wildland fires are a devastating force driven by complex phenomena
that are not well understood. Scientists at NCAR have a history
of coupling numerical regional weather simulations with fire-spread
models to advance the understanding of wildfires.
According to NCAR scientist Janice Coen, "There are many things
about wildfires that aren't understood scientifically. There are also
many technological challenges involved in simulating phenomena that
change very rapidly, and in quickly transmitting data from remote locations
into a model running many possible scenarios on a supercomputer far
away. You have to deliver this information rapidly, reliably, and in
a meaningful way (with images, not words) through secure means to people
who may be far from telephones. Those are the information technology
problems this research addresses, and they occur in management of other
natural and human-caused disasters as well."
Jan Mandel is a professor of mathematics at the University of
Colorado at Denver. Professor Mandel holds a masters and doctorate
degree from Charles University in Czechoslovakia. Among his other research
accomplishments, he has developed mathematical methods used in the
design of fighter jets and for creating artificial intelligence.
Janice Coen is a project scientist at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, whose primary sponsor is the National Science
Foundation. Her research interests include coupled Atmosphere-wildland
fire modeling, analysis of infrared imagery of wildland fire dynamics,
and numerical modeling of precipitation formation over complex terrain.
She is the scientific lead of the Wildland
Fire R&D Collaboratory.
For more information
- Anatta, NCAR/UCAR Communications, anatta@ucar.edu,
303-497-8604
- Michele Ames, C.U. at Denver Office of Media Relations, 303-556-2523
- Cheryl Dybas, NSF Office of Public Affairs, cdybas@nsf.gov,
703-292-7734
- Janice Coen, NCAR, janicec@ucar.edu,
303-497-8986
SCD's support of wildfire research
The Scientific Computing Division operates and manages NCAR's Advanced
Research Computing System (ARCS), which is used by researchers to study
wildfires. Researchers also use SCD's VisLab
(equipped with visual supercomputers, high-resolution projectors, and
a virtual-reality projection screen) to visualize the results of wildfire
model runs.
For more information on SCD's support of NCAR supercomputers,
contact SCD's Digital Information Group (dig@ucar.edu).
|
